Multiple players have taken us by surprise over the last couple of years.
Looking at George Kittle, Adam Theilen and Carson Wentz's ADP before their respective breakouts is mind blowing. Each one of them went undrafted in most leagues, yet finished in the top tier of their position!
Now if you're reading this and telling yourself that you knew all along they would Breakout. Or that you snagged Wentz in the last round of your league and held on to him during his MVP season. STOP LYING. Nobody knows who will Breakout! What we do know is, there is a TYPE of player that has the opportunity to Breakout. And Fantasy Football is all about opportunity.
What is the similarity Between Kittle, Theilen and Wentz? And how do we identify the next Fantasy Superstar?
Firstly, Wentz and Kittle were both second year players who gained the trust of their coaching staffs in the latter part of the former year. And while Theilen wasn't a second year player, he too made big strides at the end of the year before his breakout. All these players were on BAD teams. Therefore, key #1 is trust, when a coaching staff sees a player grinding and performing well at the end of the year when there is nothing to play for, and everyone is tired, they instantly trust these players. Couple that with a recent bump in production and the coach is sold.
Secondly, Opportunity is everything in Fantasy Football. Kittle was on a high octane offense, with a great offensive coach, and no real competition to take targets away from him. Wentz was a running QB, with great weapons around him, a QB coach, and a great offensive line. Theilen is the 2nd WR on a team with no offensive line to speak of. Aka he was getting lower quality coverage on a team that doesn't run the ball. So you can see why they were destined to succeed even before the season started.
Lastly, Talent is the most important component to a good football player. So to identify talent you have to do a deep dive into their advanced statistics. Finding out George Kittle has speed and Adam Theilen had great separation is actually fairly easy in hindsight. But to predict it, is the hard part.
To find out who I think is gonna break out.. stay tuned!
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